Short answer: work backwards from the shelf date. Allow 25–45 days for production, 5–10 days for testing and booking, 20–40 days on the water, 5–10 days for customs and delivery, and 2–4 weeks of buffer. That means Christmas toys are ordered in June–July, summer toys in December–January, Easter in November–December and back-to-school in March. Chinese New Year (mid-January to mid-February) removes three to four weeks from any timeline that crosses it, so orders placed in December are effectively January orders.
| Selling season | On shelf | Order by (USA West Coast) | Order by (USA East Coast / EU / UK) | Order by (Latin America) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christmas 2026 | Early November | 10 July 2026 | 25 June 2026 | 15 June 2026 |
| Chinese New Year gap | — | Factories close about 6–20 February 2027; orders placed after ~5 January ship in March | ||
| Easter 2027 (4 April) | Early March | 20 November 2026 | 5 November 2026 | 25 October 2026 |
| Summer 2027 | Early May | 10 January 2027* | 20 December 2026 | 10 December 2026 |
| Back-to-school 2027 | Mid July | 25 March 2027 | 10 March 2027 | 1 March 2027 |
| Halloween 2027 | Mid September | 25 May 2027 | 10 May 2027 | 1 May 2027 |
| Christmas 2027 | Early November | 10 July 2027 | 25 June 2027 | 15 June 2027 |
*Orders confirmed after 10 January 2027 will not enter production until factories reopen after Chinese New Year; ask about in-stock lines instead. Dates assume a 40HQ, standard sea freight and no air. Use our order deadline calculator for your own port.
Buy in-stock designs (production 10–15 days), split a program into an early sea shipment and a smaller later top-up, or use LCL for the first 10–15 m³ while the full container follows. Air freight is rarely economic for toys because of volume, but sea-air via Dubai or rail to Europe can save two weeks at moderate cost. Reusing last year’s test reports on repeat SKUs also removes a week of lab time.
Confirm orders by late June to mid July for a November shelf date by sea. Later than August means air freight or missing the season.
Most Chenghai factories close for two to three weeks around the holiday and take another one to two weeks to reach full output, so plan a four-week gap.
Only in-stock lines. Custom production confirmed in February typically ships in late March or April, which is too late for May shelf dates in most markets.
Slightly, because the slowest factory sets the loading date. A trading company sequences production so that fast lines are finished last and nothing waits in the warehouse.
Send us your program and shelf date and we reply with a production and shipping calendar per line within one business day. Related: shipping toys to Europe, lead times by category.